Research Team at Natixis, suggests that the Canadian dollar will remain downbeat in coming weeks, notably until the OPEC meeting on 30 November, when the cartel may, but need not, ratify the tentative agreement to reduce its production to 32.5m bpd.
“Then there is the US presidential election, which will be important since Donald Trump wants to scrap the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which would damage an already frail Canadian economy (contraction in GDP in Q2 2016). In this context, the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting will be watched closely. Expectations are that the statement by its Governor will be dovish. In this context, the USD/CAD could recover temporarily towards 1.33 before a consolidation.”