USD/CAD flirts with session lows, below 1.2600 mark

USD/CAD witnessed some selling on Friday amid a modest USD pullback from multi-month tops.
An uptick in crude oil prices underpinned the loonie and contributed to the intraday selling bias.
A combination of factors might continue to lend support to the USD and limit losses for the pair.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair edged lower through the Asian session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its intraday trading range, just below the 1.2600 mark.

A combination of factors failed to assist the pair to build on the previous day's positive move to over two-week tops, instead exerted some downward pressure on the last trading day of the week. A modest pickup in crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie. This, along with some US dollar profit-taking, further contributed to the USD/CAD pair's downtick.

Oil prices bounced back on Friday amid concerns that the blockage of the Suez Canal – one of the world's busiest shipping channels for crude and refined fuels – could squeeze supply. Investors, however, remain worried that the third wave of COVID-19 infections and fresh lockdowns in Europe may slow the anticipated recovery in fuel demand. This, in turn, might cap gains.

On the other hand, the impressive pace of coronavirus vaccinations, the optimistic outlook for the US economic recovery and a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields might help limit any meaningful USD decline. Thursday's better than expected US Jobless Claims, which fell to a one-year low of 684K, reinforced the narrative of a relatively faster recovery from the pandemic.

Adding to the optimism, US President Joe Biden – in his first formal news conference on Thursday – said that he would double the vaccination rollout plan. Having reached the previous goal of 100 million shots well ahead of schedule (42 days), Biden made an ambitious pledge of administering 200 million vaccine shots in 100 days. This could further extend some support to the buck.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the releases of Personal Income/Spending figures for February, Core PCE Price Index and revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. The data might influence the USD, which along with oil price dynamics would produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.2592
Today Daily Change	-0.0021
Today Daily Change %	-0.17
Today daily open	1.2613

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2576
Daily SMA50	1.2656
Daily SMA100	1.2764
Daily SMA200	1.3039

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2629
Previous Daily Low	1.2547
Previous Weekly High	1.2548
Previous Weekly Low	1.2365
Previous Monthly High	1.287
Previous Monthly Low	1.2468
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2598
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2578
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2563
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2514
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2481
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2646
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2679
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2728

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms

EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage.

GBP/USD remains above nine-day EMA near 1.3650

GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3680 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a sustained bullish bias, as the pair trades within an ascending channel pattern.

Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP

Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.

S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem

The rebound from last week’s drawdown never quite shook the sense that it was being supported by borrowed conviction. The S&P 500 once again tested near the 7,000 level (6,986 as the high watermark) and failed, despite a macro backdrop that would normally be interpreted as supportive of risk.

Bitcoin price slips below $67,000 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data

Bitcoin price extends losses, and trades below the lower consolidating boundary at $67,300 at the time of writing. A firm close below this level could trigger a deeper correction for BTC. Despite the weakness in price action, institutional demand shows signs of support, recording mild inflows in ETFs so far this week.