US: The end of the JCPOA? – Standard Chartered

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – also known as the Iran nuclear deal – is a multiparty agreement signed in July 2015 aimed at mothballing Iran’s nuclear programme and introducing comprehensive international monitoring, but there are growing indications that Trump might not do so on the next due date, according to Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Senior Economist at Standard Chartered.

Key Quotes

“On the basis of the deal, the EU lifted and the US suspended some sanctions against Iran, renewing its prospects for economic engagement with the international community. Under US domestic law, the president needs to re-certify the sanction waivers on a regular basis. There are growing indications that Trump might not do so on the next due date, 12 May.”

“There are several possible developments stemming from both the US decision and Iran’s potential reaction. The US could withdraw from the deal but not reinstate ‘secondary sanctions’ (those imposed on non-US persons and activities). This could leave Iran with some room to continue to engage economically with other countries, although it would result in legal uncertainty. Should Trump refuse to extend the waiver, oil prices and Middle East tensions could rise.”