US retails sales to prompt downward revisions of GDP forecasts for Q3? - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ explained that US retail fell 0.2% m/m in August.
Key Quotes:
"The data will prompt some downward revisions of GDP forecasts for Q3. Taken over the three months, control group sales have risen at an average of 0.2% m/m, suggesting real private consumption is running around trend. The Commerce Department said it couldn’t isolate the effect from Hurricane Harvey, but with the slump in auto sales (-1.6% m/m) it would appear to have had some effect. This will reverse as insurance claims for destroyed vehicles are processed. US industrial production dropped 0.9% m/m in August.
The Fed estimates that 0.75ppt of the fall was due to Hurricane Harvey. Whilst market’s ignored the data, it will also be another drag on Q3 GDP forecasts. US consumers remained upbeat though, despite on-going political uncertainties, North Korea tensions, and hurricane impacts, with September Michigan consumer confidence at 95.3. So aside from hurricane disruptions, the September surveys (Empire and Mich Confidence) suggests US growth is continuing on the Fed’s expected path.
In addition, a lift in prices by both the Empire manufacturing and Michigan confidence surveys, as well as the CPI ticking up last week, suggest a base has been found in inflation."
Author
Ross J Burland
FXStreet
Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.
