US policy on China to get even tougher - Reuters Poll

According to the results of a Reuters Poll, US economic policy targeting China is going to get even tougher than it already is.

Key quotes

U.S. trade policy toward China over the next few years will become more confrontational, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who remain convinced U.S. growth has peaked and will slow substantially next year.

The same survey showed the Federal Reserve will raise rates three times next year compared with just two in a poll taken only a month ago. That brings the consensus among Fed watchers in line with the central bank’s “dot plot” forecasts.

More than half of over 50 economists who answered an additional question said U.S. economic policy toward China in the next few years will become more punitive and confrontational, countering a lingering view that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration will soften its tone.

“U.S. and China trade disputes are spilling over into other areas of the bilateral relationship between the two countries. The policy differences that are coming to a head today will not be easily or quickly resolved,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco.

“There are potential talks between President Trump and (Chinese President) Xi (Jinping) planned for the G20 summit next month, but at the moment we wouldn’t hold much hope” for a deal, he added.

Just seven respondents in the poll predicted an improvement in U.S.-China trade relations.

Economists polled by Reuters have consistently said putting up trade barriers will do more harm than good.

Economists said they believed that a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position will give Washington fewer policy options to cushion the next downturn. They noted that tax cuts have widened the federal budget deficit to the highest in six years, expected to touch $1 trillion in the current fiscal year.