Breaking: US JOLTS Job Openings rise to 7.39 million in April vs. 7.1 million forecast
The number of job openings on the last business day of April stood at 7.39 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed 7.2 million openings recorded in March and came in above the market expectation of 7.1 million.
"Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little," the BLS noted in its press release.
Market reaction to US JOLTS Job Openings data
The US Dollar (USD) preserves its strength following this data. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.5% on the day at 99.20.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.52% | 0.19% | 0.69% | 0.08% | 0.57% | 0.55% | 0.72% | |
| EUR | -0.52% | -0.31% | 0.20% | -0.42% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.19% | 0.31% | 0.49% | -0.12% | 0.38% | 0.42% | 0.53% | |
| JPY | -0.69% | -0.20% | -0.49% | -0.59% | -0.12% | -0.11% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.42% | 0.12% | 0.59% | 0.44% | 0.53% | 0.65% | |
| AUD | -0.57% | -0.07% | -0.38% | 0.12% | -0.44% | 0.04% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | -0.55% | -0.11% | -0.42% | 0.11% | -0.53% | -0.04% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.72% | -0.22% | -0.53% | -0.12% | -0.65% | -0.16% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US JOLTS Job Openings data at 09:00 GMT.
- The US JOLTS data will be watched closely ahead of the release of the May employment report on Friday.
- Job openings are forecast to edge lower to 7.1 million in April.
- The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting interest rates.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in April, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.
JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since reaching 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In January, the number of job openings came in above 7.7 million before declining to 7.2 million by March.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
Markets expect job openings to retreat slightly to 7.1 million on the last business day of April. With the growing uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policy on the economic and inflation outlook, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have been voicing their concerns over a potential cooldown in the labor market.
The minutes of the Fed’s May 6-7 policy meeting showed policymakers agreed that risks of higher unemployment had risen. Still, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that risks to employment and inflation goals were “roughly balanced”, adding that it could take “quite some time” to see a shift in the balance of risks.
It is important to note that the JOLTS report refers to the end of April, while the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for May. Regardless of the lagging nature of the JOLTS data, a significant decline in the number of job openings, with a reading well below 7 million, could feed into fears about a weakening labor market. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.
On the flip side, a sharp increase, with a print at or above 7.7 million, could suggest that the labor market remains relatively stable. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets don’t expect the Fed to cut the policy rate at the next policy meeting in June, while pricing in a nearly 25% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in July. This market positioning suggests that a positive surprise could support the USD by causing investors to lean toward a delay of rate reduction to September.
When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Job opening numbers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The near-term technical outlook points to a buildup of bullish momentum in EUR/USD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays near 60 and the pair pulls away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average, currently located at 1.1280, after dipping below it in the previous week.”
“On the upside, 1.1530-1.1575 (end-point of the three-month-old uptrend, April 21 high) aligns as the first resistance region before 1.1700 (static level, round level) and 1.1780 (upper limit of the ascending channel). Looking south, the initial support area could be seen at 1.1280 (20-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) ahead of 1.1200-1.1180 (50-day SMA, lower limit of the ascending channel) and 1.1080 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Author
FXStreet Team
FXStreet
