The past two US nonfarm payroll outcomes have been heavily affected by hurricane season as after an initially reported employment decline of 33k in September (revised to +18k), employment growth surged back in October, payrolls rising 261k, explains the research team at Westpac.
“That brought the six month and year-to-date averages back to 163k and 169k. Albeit down on 2016, this growth pace is still well ahead of that necessary to keep the unemployment rate unchanged (circa 100k).”
“In November, we expect another robust outcome of 185k, which will see the year-to-date average sustained. Following the sizeable positive revision reported last month (+90k), there is some risk of a modest downward revision to prior months in November. Turning to the household survey, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged; the risk is that it edges higher to 4.2%.”
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