US: Industrial production and manufacturing output in focus - BBH

The US reports industrial production and manufacturing output and the former is likely to bounce back after a 0.3% decline in January suggests analyst at BBH.  

Key Quotes

“Manufacturing employment rose more than expected (28k, matching January 2015 high, which itself was the highest since August 2013).  The median from the Bloomberg survey is for a 0.5% rise in manufacturing output.  The University of Michigan reports consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.  The Conference Board reports February leading economic indicators.  The LEI averaged 0.2% increase a month in 2016.  The average over the past three months has doubled that, and it will rise further if it rises another 0.5% today.”

“Still, remember that Q1 growth in the US has been notoriously poor since the crisis and has not had a material impact on subsequent performance.  Specifically, Q1 GDP has averaged 1.04% since 2010.  The other quarters average 2.5% (2.5% for Q2, 2.7% for Q3, and 2.3% for Q4).  The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker is estimating 0.9% for Q1 17, an estimate we suspect will be raised as the US consumption is not as weak as the early data suggests.”