US: Government shutdown ends but another looms in January – UOB Group

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

After a record 6-week (43-days) government shutdown, on Wed (12 Nov), the US House of Representatives voted 222 to 209 to pass the interim funding bill to reopen the US government, which President Trump signed into law on the same day. The bill drew opposition from most Democrat House policymakers because it did not include their core demand that started the shutdown fight: the renewal of expiring subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) health insurance premiums, UOB Group's Senior Economist Alvin Liew reports.

A record shutdown comes to an end for now

"US Government Shutdown Ends Temporarily: After a record 6-week (43-days) shutdown, the US government reopened with an interim funding bill passed by the House (222–209) and signed by President Trump on 12 Nov. The bill excludes Democrats’ key demand to renew Affordable Care Act subsidies, setting up another potential shutdown after 30 Jan 2026."

"Recovery will not be immediate — delays expected in food aid, payroll processing, environmental permits, and air travel normalization. Key economic data releases (jobs, CPI, GDP) remain uncertain, with October reports possibly never published, leaving policymakers with limited visibility."

"Growth Outlook & Risks: CBO estimated a 1.5ppt hit to 4Q GDP, offset by a 2.2ppt rebound in 1Q 2026. We have revised our US GDP growth projections with 2025 GDP growth lowered to 1.5% (from 1.7%), 2026 raised to 1.7% (from 1.5%). Risk of another prolonged shutdown after 30 Jan could disrupt sectors like aviation and impair next year’s recovery."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD clings to multi-day peaks below 1.3500

GBP/USD trades with marked gains on Friday, now giving away some gains following an earlier surpass of the key 1.3500 yardstick. Indeed, Cable gathers fresh steam amid the strong offered stance in the Greenback, all after US NFP badly missed expectations in July.

EUR/USD: Post-NFP bounce falters around 1.1580

EUR/USD reverses Thursday’s decline and trades with solid gains in the 1.1560 region, or two-month peaks, on Friday. The pair’s firm performance comes in a context of a sharp correction in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess disheartening US NFP readings.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

XRP Price Forecast: XRP nears critical $1.00 support

Ripple (XRP) remains pressured on Friday, trading around $1.03 at the time of writing. The token appears to hold this current level as support but lacks a catalyst to sustain a knee-jerk rebound toward the next key resistance at $1.10.

Is Gold about to enter its biggest bull run since 2020?

Gold has stormed back into the spotlight and its next move could leave late buyers chasing. On August 5, the yellow metal surged almost 7% – roughly $174 – to close near $4,308 an ounce, posting one of its biggest daily advances in recent history. A weaker U.S dollar, falling Treasury yields, changing Federal Reserve expectations and renewed safe-haven demand all struck at once.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.