US Elections: Senate polls to become more significant unless there is an earth-shattering swing towards Trump

President Trump is trailing Biden by a wide margin but skeptics point to 2016. Nonetheless, there are seven reasons why this time is different, according to FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam. The Senate race is much closer and could be more consequential for markets. 

More:

• US Elections: President Trump victory with a split Congress, the most positive outcome for financial markets – HSBC

• US Elections: Blue Wave to extend USD decline and equities rally – Westpac

Key quotes

“Bigger gap: According to the RealClearPolitics, former Vice-President Joe Biden leads the president by 9% nationally and has consistently had a larger lead than Clinton's. The gap stands at 3.4% as of mid-October.”

“Fewer undecideds: Back in 2016, support for Clinton peaked below 47%. This time, backing for Biden has been above 50% with fewer undecideds. There are fewer people that could break toward Trump.”

“Poll mistakes go both ways: It is easier to compare to 2016, when the president shocked the world with a victory but looking back into history shows that surveys can miss in both directions. Back in 2012, surveys underestimated President Barack Obama by around 4% on the national levels and state polls missed Democratic support as well. Accounting for a 2012-style miss, Biden has an even larger advantage.”

“Pollsters have learned: Firms that survey public opinion need to defend their reputation toward the next elections and to rake in income from commercial firms. They would not want to repeat the exact same mistakes – and may even overcompensate and underestimate a potential Biden landslide.”

“Gap between states and national vote smaller this time: Not even the most ardent Trump backers believe he can win the popular vote, but build their hopes on an electoral college victory.” 

“No shy Trump voters: Trump backers are not shy, there are just small quantities of them. The base is too small and Trump has failed to pivot to the center and enlarge his support.”

“October surprise? Trump and Biden are set to meet in the second and final debate on October 22, and that is probably the president's best chance to win back support. Can something like the Comey letter happen again? Anything is possible, but so far, nothing has stuck to Biden.”