Another wave of coronavirus surge in the US is seemingly dimming the outlook for the economic recovery ahead of next week’s Presidential election, economists polled by Reuters believed.
“Nearly two-thirds of 58 economists who responded to an additional question in the Oct 16-26 poll said there was a high risk that the U.S. economic rebound could be halted by the surge in coronavirus cases, including five who said it was very high.
The result of the Nov. 3 US presidential election, if available promptly, could swiftly end the gridlock on a second fiscal stimulus bill.
Democratic control of the Senate, along with a win for the party’s presidential candidate Joe Biden, was predicted to yield a stronger near-term economic recovery, according to nearly 75% of 59 analysts who responded to an additional question.
Over 80%, or 41 of 49 respondents, said the US jobless rate would not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2023 at least, including two respondents who said it never would.
The wider poll showed the jobless rate averaging 8.3% this year, 6.8% next and 5.5% in 2022. It was 3.5% earlier this year before the pandemic took hold.
It is forecast to grow 4% this quarter after an expected record rebound of 31% last quarter.
For this year, the world’s largest economy is forecast to shrink 4%, according to the poll of 120 economists.
The consensus for 2021 and 2022 was for 3.7% and 2.9% growth, respectively.
Of the economists who expect more stimulus, the median was $1.8 trillion, within a $0.5-$3.5 trillion range.”
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