Weekly economic & financial commentary

Summary

Broadening drivers of growth: Unpacking GDP and looking ahead

U.S. Week in Review:

• This week’s data delivered a familiar theme with an important twist. The U.S. economy continues to be shaped by powerful forces in high-tech and AI-related investment, but recent releases suggest the growth story may finally be broadening. At the same time, trade flows are moving in a less supportive direction, reminding us that not all parts of the economy are pulling in sync.

U.S. Week Ahead:

• Consumer confidence likely rebounded modestly in February after January’s decade low as cooler inflation and a better jobs report offered relief, even as high living costs and geopolitical risks persist.
• Construction spending likely improved at year-end, though we expect the results to be mixed beneath the surface, with data center construction driving strength but continued weakness in residential and structures investment expected as high interest rates and economic uncertainty continue to constrain activity.

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