- T-bond yields lift the greenback in late NA session.
- Chicago Fed's National Activity Index stays unchanged in August.
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index disappoints.
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell to a daily low of 93.84 in the early NA session amid the robust upsurges seen in the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD pairs but staged a modest recovery in the last couple of hours to retake the 94 handle. As of writing, the index was virtually unchanged on the day at 94.20.
Today's Brexit headlines and ECB President Draghi's hawkish monetary policy remarks allowed the pound sterling and the shared currency outperform their rivals. The data from the U.S. on Wednesday showed that the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index stayed unchanged at 0.18 in August to surpass the analysts' estimate of 0.02. "The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI moved up to +0.16 in August from +0.10 in July while the employment-related indicators contributed –0.01, down from +0.13 in July," Chicago Fed noted in its publication.
A separate report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas revealed that the business activity in the regional manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace than expected with the headline general activity index easing to 28.1 from 30.9. Although the mixed data failed to lift the dollar, rising T-bond yields allowed the buck to find demand. At the moment, yields on both the 10 and 2-year references were up 0.5%.
This week's FOMC meeting will be the next significant catalyst for the DXY. The monetary policy statement and the interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday following the 2-day meeting. “The FOMC will likely continue to forecast a total of four hikes in 2018, one more after the expected hike at the September meeting, three hikes in 2019 and one hike in 2020. However, the September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be extended by one year, through 2021,” Nomura analysts noted in a recently published article.
Technical levels to consider
The immediate support for the index aligns at 94 (psychological level). A decisive break below this level could open the door for further losses toward 93.70 (Jul. 9 low) and 93.20 (Jun. 14 low). On the upside, resistances could be seen at 94.55 (Sep. 20 high), 95 (psychological level/50-DMA) and 95.60 (Aug. 9 high).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.