US Dollar Index regains some optimism around 92.60, data in sight


  • DXY reverses part of Wednesday’s pullback and retakes 92.60.
  • US 10-year yields appear side-lined around 1.30%.
  • Retail Sales, Initial Claims, Philly Index next of relevance in the docket.

Tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), the greenback attempts s decent recovery to the 92.60 region on Thursday.

US Dollar Index now looks to data

The index leaves behind part of Wednesday’s moderate pullback and advances to the 92.50/60 band in the second half of the week.

Thursday’s gains in the dollar comes despite the consolidative mood in yields of the US 10-year benchmark note around the 1.30%, around 5 bps lower than Wednesday’s peaks.

In the meantime, the dollar extends the erratic performance amidst Delta concerns and diminished enthusiasm surrounding the Fed’s QE tapering, particularly following the dispiriting US inflation figures for the month of August.

In the US calendar, the release of Retail Sales for the month of August will take centre stage seconded by weekly Claims, the Philly Fed Index, Business Inventories and TIC Flows.

What to look for around USD

The dollar’s lack of clear direction keeps DXY stuck within a narrow range for the time being, all against the backdrop of steady yields and alternating risk appetite trends. Support for the buck, in the meantime, comes from perseverant COVID jitters, doubts surrounding the rebound in the US economic activity, inflation risks and the eventual announcement of the start of the Fed’s tapering (albeit postponed to some point by year end).

Key events in the US this week: Retail Sales, Initial Claims, Philly Fed Index, Business Inventories (Thursday) – Flash September Consumer Sentiment (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s multi-trillion plan to support infrastructure and families. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Debt ceiling debate. Geopolitical risks stemming from Afghanistan.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

Now, the index is gaining 0.13% at 92.58 and a break above 92.88 (monthly high Sep.13) would open the door to 93.18 (high Aug.27) and then 93.72 (2021 high Aug.20). On the flip side, the next down barrier emerges at 92.32 (weekly low Sep.14) seconded by 91.94 (monthly low Sep.3) and finally 91.78 (monthly low Jul.30).

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