US data reviewed and previewed - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a breakdown of overnight US data and a preview of forthcoming for the ay ahead.

Key Quotes:

"Review NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations:

According to this survey, the median 3- year expected inflation rate inched upwards to 2.83% in December from 2.71% in November. This measure of consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations has been within a steady range, and the latest reading appears consistent with the FOMC’s view that consumers’ expected inflation remained relatively steady, as seen in the minutes from the December FOMC meeting. By contrast, the indicator for 5- to 10-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey dropped sharply in December. We will be monitoring if there is any sustained downtrend in this measure of longer-term inflation expectations. The preliminary estimate of the January Michigan survey will be released on Friday, 13 January.

Consumer credit:

According to the Federal Reserve report, consumer credits expanded by $24.5bn in November, exceeding expectations, following a healthy reading of an upwardly revised $16.2bn increase in November (previously reported as an increase of $16.0bn). Coupled with steady job gains and wage growth, revolving credit, which primarily consists of credit cards, increased at an annual rate of 13.5%, suggesting that consumers were more willing to make purchases through credit cards. Nonrevolving credits, which include motor vehicle loans and educational loans, continued to expand at a healthy pace of annualized 5.9%.

Preview Wholesale inventories:

In the preliminary estimate, wholesale inventories were up 0.9% m-o-m in November following an upwardly revised 0.1% decline (previously reported as -0.4%) in October. The increase in inventories was seen in both durable and nondurable goods categories, suggesting inventory investment picked up in the month. In the final estimate for November, consensus expects this reading to be unrevised at 0.9% m-o-m. JOLTS: Job openings fell slightly to 5534k in October from 5631k in September, with the job openings rate unchanged at 3.7%. The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Online ads were relatively steady as well, increasing by 74k in December. The steady reading suggests that the labor market remains tight, in line with the FOMC’s view that “labor market conditions had improved appreciably over the past year and that labor market slack had declined,” as seen in the minutes for the December meeting. Consensus forecasts 5500k job openings in November."