US CPI preview: decline in core CPI March transitory - Nomura


Analysts at Nomura expect headline CPI to increase by 0.2% (0.249%) m-o-m in April after dropping in March. 

Key Quotes:

"Gasoline prices rose moderately in April and higher agricultural commodity prices continue to push up food prices. Our forecast translates into y-o-y inflation of 2.3% (2.293%). Excluding energy and food prices, we think that core CPI inflation will return to a trend-like increase of +0.2% (+0.174%) m-o-m in April, following a surprising decline of 0.1% in March. 

If our forecast proves correct, the 12-month change rate of core CPI would be 2.0% (1.993%). That said, despite the unexpected drop in March, we do not think that the risk of core inflation substantially overshooting our forecast is high, given that some of the weakness in March could persist for a while. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 244.745.

Bottom line:

We judge that the decline in core CPI in March was largely transitory. However, we think it is unlikely to see an extreme rebound in April to compensate for this transitory decline."

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