UnitedHealth Group (UNH) tests resistance, but will earnings beat fuel a breakout?

UnitedHealth Group (UNH), the beleaguered healthcare giant managing insurance and services for millions of Americans, is approaching a moment of truth on the charts. The next several trading sessions could determine whether its impressive recovery from the August lows has staying power or if sellers will reassert control. The stock is marching back toward a trendline that signals caution—a key level where former support became unforgiving resistance.

Here is the setup I’m seeing in terms of technical analysis. The downsloping yellow trendline stretching across the chart wasn't always the enemy of bulls. In fact, it served as reliable support during the entire rally from early 2025, guiding price action higher through $455.84 and all the way to $475.27 by April. Traders who understood the strength of that support line made good money riding that trend. But then something changed.

The breakdown came swiftly. Once price sliced below that support trendline, the technical playbook wrote itself: former support becomes new resistance. And that's exactly what happened at $439.32. Price rallied back to retest the now-broken trendline, and sellers were waiting.

That rejection wasn't subtle. UNH plummeted from $439 all the way down to the low $240s, a devastating decline that wiped out months of gains. This is the power of failed support levels; they often become formidable resistance, partly because traders remember the pain.

After bottoming in August, UNH has now mounted an impressive recovery rally. From $240 to the current $365-$382 range represents a substantial bounce, the kind that makes you wonder if the worst is behind us. But here's the rub: that same trendline that rejected price at $439 is now descending right into the path of this recovery, converging around $382.96. We're about to find out if buyers have the conviction to reclaim what was lost.

The recent earnings report adds context to this technical battle. UNH delivered $2.92 per share on $113.16 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, narrowly missing the Earnings Whisper number of $2.93 by just 0.34%. While the company beat consensus estimates and posted over 12% year-over-year revenue growth, that marginal miss against whisper expectations hasn't ignited the kind of buying enthusiasm that breaks through major resistance. The fundamentals remain solid, but the market is clearly waiting for technical confirmation before committing capital aggressively.

What I'm watching now is how price behaves as it approaches this $382.96 convergence zone. The consolidation between $365.96 and $382.00 suggests traders are positioning themselves, but nobody wants to be the first one through the door. And rightfully so—memory of that $439 rejection is still fresh.

For the bulls to take control, there's only one path: price must reclaim this trendline by breaking cleanly above $382.96 and holding above it. Not just a quick spike that fades, but a decisive close above with follow-through in subsequent sessions. If that happens, it would signal that the downtrend structure is breaking down and could open the door back toward $400 and potentially those former support levels around $439. A reclaimed trendline often becomes support again, which would completely change the technical landscape.

But let's not ignore the bearish scenario, because it's equally valid. The "Short Level" I’ve marked at $382.96 points to exactly what technical traders are watching. This is prime territory for resistance to hold once again. If price approaches this trendline and starts showing hesitation—spinning tops, long upper wicks, diminishing volume—it could signal another rejection is brewing. A failure here could send price back toward $365 support or lower, reinforcing the notion that this downtrend isn't finished yet.

The risk management on both sides is straightforward. Bulls should wait for confirmation above $382.96 before entering, with stops below $375 to protect against a false breakout. Bears watching for shorts at resistance need tight stops above $385, because if this trendline gets reclaimed, the squeeze higher could be swift.

UNH stands at a technical crossroads where pattern memory is meeting recovery momentum. The earnings beat demonstrates business resilience, but the market's tepid response keeps us anchored to the technicals. That $382.96 level is a crucial price point. It's the line separating a continuation of the downtrend from the beginning of a potential reversal. The next few trading sessions should tell us which side wins this standoff.