UK: Deal or no deal, the political impact of a Brexit will be long-lasting and substantial - NBF

According to National Bank of Canada analyst, Angelo Katsoras, point out that while they continue to feel that an exit deal is ultimately more likely than a hard Brexit in the short-term, deal or no deal, the political impact of a Brexit will be long-lasting and substantial. 

Key Quotes:

“When it comes to Brexit, the only certainty, it appears, is that there will be more uncertainty. Political positions regarding deadlines, elections and another referendum are in a state of flux.”

“The greatest political divide is no longer between Labour and Conservative supporters, but between proponents and opponents of Brexit. This in turn risks further fragmenting UK’s political landscape, a trend that has already deeply impacted continental Europe.”

“Regardless of the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, increased tensions with the EU appears inevitable. The EU in particular will remain torn between wanting to make life more difficult for the UK to discourage other countries from following its lead and the realization that hurting the world’s fifth-largest economy and a major trading partner will only add to the EU’s many political and economic challenges.”

“The UK’s 2016 vote on Brexit is part of a larger trend of European countries holding referendums on major issues. Other countries or regions that have recently held referendums include: Greece 2015 (bailout conditions), Catalonia 2017 (disputed independence referendum), Italy 2016 (constiutional reforms), and Scotland 2014 (independence vote). More often than not, the referendums left these regions and countries more divided than before.”