The euro zone must put its own house in order – Commerzbank

Yesterday, I wrote that I could hardly imagine a scenario in which the dollar would suddenly appreciate massively and regain its former strength. Nevertheless, we could see a correction in EUR/USD. One that comes from the euro side. I don't want to paint a bleak picture, but one issue that I have already addressed could increasingly come to the fore and weigh on the euro: the sustainability of debt in the euro zone, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

US D is currently the focus of attention

"The government crisis in France surrounding the essential budget consolidation to limit the rise in debt and the increase in French yields show how quickly the euro can come under downward pressure again if debt levels in the euro area get out of hand. After all, debt ratios in the euro zone are likely to rise significantly in the coming years, partly due to rising interest charges and higher defense spending. It is no use pointing the finger at debt developments in the US; instead, countries need to do their homework, especially France and Italy, and take countermeasures."

"For as worrying as the projections for US debt may be, some euro area countries are just as vulnerable. If the countries concerned fail to implement reforms, this could increase pressure on the EU to take on joint debt and on the ECB to push down yields, at least temporarily, through additional bond purchases and/or a reduction in its key interest rates – contrary to its mandate of price stability. And that, in turn, would be negative for the euro. Apart from the loss of confidence in the single currency, there has already been a debt crisis in the euro zone once before."

"I am by no means calling for a crisis and euro weakness; I am far from doing so, especially since it is time for countries to put their own houses in order and take countermeasures, even if this means painful savings and reforms. I would just like to point out that, although the dollar is currently the focus of attention when looking at EUR/USD, the euro zone also has its problems, which should not be ignored."