Singapore: Coronavirus, US-China weighs on trade prospects – UOB

UOB Group’s Economist Barnabas Gan assessed the latest trade data in Singapore.

Key Quotes

“Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 4.5% y/y in May 2020, as the decline in non-electronic exports outweighed the gains in electronic exports. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX fell by a similar pace of 4.5%. Total trade continued to contract for the third straight month by 25.0% y/y.”

“The fall in NODX was led by a decline in non-electronic exports (-8.8% y/y), seen from petrochemicals (-31.2%), electrical machinery & apparatus (-28.8%) and chemicals (-18.4%). Pharmaceutical exports fell 7.0% y/y on the back of a high base year effect. Electronic exports (+12.5% y/y) was however supported by the growth in disk drives (+23.6% y/y) and integrated circuits (+22.5% y/y).”

“The uncertainty surrounding the length and severity of COVID-19, as well as the emergence of renewed US-China tensions continue to cloud Singapore’s trade prospects. We keep to our outlook for NODX to contract by 1.0% with downside risks should the COVID-19 pandemic becomes more severe and protracted.”