Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to $93.50 record, $100 in sight
- Silver spikes to $93.50 as threats to Fed independence crush the US Dollar despite strong US data.
- Parabolic uptrend keeps momentum firmly bullish, even with RSI deep in overbought territory.
- A break above $94.00 targets $95.00 and potentially the psychological $100.00 level.
Silver prices skyrocketed to a new record high on Wednesday after bouncing off a daily low of $86.91, hitting a new all-time high at $93.52, and it seems poised to clear the $100.00 barrier in the near term. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $93.05, soaring over 7%.
Economic data in the US showed that inflation on the producer side was 3% in November, exceeding forecasts for headline and core prices. Also, Retail Sales improved in November, but the US Dollar failed to rally.
Some of the reasons are the threat to the Fed’s independence after the Department of Justice (DoJ) subpoenaed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the Fed's building renovations. Fed Chair Powell said that those were just pretexts as the central bank is focused on dictating monetary policy using the tools available to it, not on complying with the White House administration.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver’s uptrend is parabolic, and so far, it is nearly 30% up year-to-date. Momentum remains bullish as portrayed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which, despite being overbought, the strength of the trend indicates the most extreme level would be 80.
If XAG/USD clears $94.00, the next stop would be $94.50, followed by $95.00. Up next lies the $100.00 print. Conversely, if XAG/USD stumbles below $90.00, the first support would be the January 14 low of $86.91, followed by the December 29 cycle high at $83.75
XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
