Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD hits fresh multi-week highs near $22.50 pre-US NFP

Even though the US dollar is ever-so-slightly firmer in the run-up to the release of the official US labour market report at 1230GMT, the risk-off mood to broader markets has helped spot silver (XAG/USD) prices hit fresh multi-week highs near the $22.50 per troy ounce mark on Friday. Analysts expect the upcoming US jobs data to reveal a slowdown in the pace of job gains in the US and, perhaps more importantly, an easing of wage growth.

If the data confirms expectations, then this will (at the margin) ease the pressure faced by the Fed to continue tightening its monetary policy settings aggressively beyond September (two 50 bps hikes in June and July are seen as a certainty, given recent Fed communications). Precious metals like it when the Fed is less hawkish/outright more dovish, as this tends to weigh on US bond yields and the US dollar, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and making USD-denominated commodities cheaper for international buyers.

A convincing break above late-May highs in the mid-$22.00s would open the door to an extension of gains towards $23.00 and the 50/200-Day Moving Averages, both of which reside in the mid-$23.00s. Note that US ISM Services PMI data for May will be released at 1400GMT, which will also be in focus as a timely update on the health of the dominant US service sector. Just as with the jobs data, signs of a slowdown would be greeted positively by silver investors who want to see a less aggressive Fed.