Risks of intervention increase: we up the stop on TRY shorts - TDS

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at TD Securities offered their trade update on their USD/TRY position.

Key Quotes:

"We entered a long USDTRY position in our model portfolio last week with a target of 5.25. The trade has so far performed in line with our expectations. At the time of writing, USDTRY is trading at 5.19, This is above inception of 4.9792 and slightly below an all-time high of 5.1960 posted today."

"The relentless upside move in USDTRY is causing increasing pain in Turkey. To ease pressure, the CBRT has injected $2.2bn of liquidity in the system by reducing the Reserve Option Coefficients (ROCs) - in brief, the CBRT has cut from 2.9 times to 2.5x the penalty that banks have to pay on the 40-45% FX tranche of their statutory reserves held in USD instead of TRY."

"The move is quantitative and works as a one-off USD injection. It can, therefore, help the lira rebound. However, failing to appreciate sustainably, further reductions of the ROCs and/or monetary tightening will be required. Given the increasing possibility that the CBRT moves towards more decisive action, we increase the stop loss from 4.8650 to 5.10, which allows us to lock in a minimum 2.4% of profit on this position, net of negative carry (ca. 4bps/day)."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

EUR/USD shifts its attention to 1.1900 and above

EUR/USD has shaken off Tuesday’s dip, pushing back beyond the 1.1800 mark amid decent gains as Wednesday’s session draws to a close. The rebound is largely driven by a modest pullback in the US Dollar, as markets digest the aftermath of President Trump’s SOTU speech and continue to monitor trade-related headlines and signals from the White House.

GBP/USD challenges multi-day highs near 1.3530

GBP/USD leaves behind the previous day’s decline and regains fresh upside traction on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.3500 barrier in a context of a modest decline in the Greenback and a generalised improved mood in the risk-linked space. Meanwhile, the US tariff narrative continues to dictate the mood among market participants after Presidet Trump’s SOTU speech failed to surprise markets.

Gold remains bid and close to $5,200

Gold buyers are returning to the fold on Wednesday, targeting the $5,200 area and possibly beyond, after Tuesday’s corrective dip from monthly highs. The rebound in the precious metal comes as the US Dollar loses traction, with Trump’s SOTU speech offering little fresh direction and AI-related nerves continuing to ease.

UK financial watchdog advances stablecoin oversight as four firms pilot issuance

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom (UK) is advancing toward the final stablecoin regulatory framework with a pilot program involving four companies, including Monee, Financial Technologies ReStabilise, Revolut and VVTX.

Nvidia earnings to influence AI trade and broader market sentiment

For the last three years, Nvidia has been the engine of the AI boom, and now Wall Street is watching to see whether that momentum can keep going. High-growth stocks have been struggling to maintain their bullish trend in 2026.

Cosmos Hub Price Forecast: ATOM rebounds slightly, bearish outlook remains intact

Cosmos Hub (ATOM) price rebounds, trading above $2.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after undergoing a sharp correction since last week. Weakening on-chain and derivatives data support a bearish outlook, while technical analysis remains unfavorable.