RBA’s MPS: Inflation has passed its peak, but still too high

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) on Friday, suggesting inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but it remains too high and is proving to be more persistent than anticipated a few months ago.

Key takeaways

“The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks.”

"Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the economy a bit stronger than expected.”

“Potential for further upside surprises to inflation, from both domestic and external factors.”

“Some measures of inflation expectations are edging up; it is important to stop this.”

“Board mindful that many households are facing a painful squeeze on budgets.”

“RBA raises forecasts for inflation and GDP growth, trims unemployment, and wage forecasts.”

“Sees trimmed mean inflation at 4.5% end 2023, 3.25% end 2024, 3.0% end 2025.”

“Sees CPI at 4.5% end 2023, 3.5% end 2024, 3.0% end 2025

“Sees wage growth at 4.0% end 2023, 3.7% end 2024, 3.5% end 2025.”

“Sees unemployment at 3.75% end 2023, 4.25% end 2024, 4.25% end 2025.”

“Sees GDP growth at 1.5% end 2023, 2.0% end 2024, 2.25% end 2025.”

“Forecasts assume the cash rate peaks around 4.5% before declining to 3.5% by end 2025.”

“Revises up population forecasts, assumes peak was 2.5% in quarter 3, followed by a decline to 1.5% average.”
 

Market reaction

The Australian Dollar edges lower following the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). At press time, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6354, losing 0.19% on the day.