RBA’s Lowe: If inflation became sticky, would require tighter monetary policy

Outgoing Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe delivers his final speech titled ‘Some Closing Remarks’ at the Anika Foundation, Sydney, on Thursday.

Key quotes

My recent focus is risk wages, profits run ahead of rates consistent with return to inflation target.

If this risk materialised and inflation became sticky, would require tighter monetary policy.

Will be difficult to return to the earlier world in which inflation tracked in a very narrow range.

Inflation is likely to be more variable around target.

Australia has been well served by a flexible inflation target.

Possible that australia can sustain unemployment rates below what we have had over the past 40 years.

Now in an environment of stronger growth in nominal wages, which is positive.

The recent productivity record isn’t encouraging; solution fundamentally a political problem.

Interest rates influence housing prices, but are not reason australia has some of the highest prices in the world.

Issue that defined my term more than any other was forward guidance on rates during the pandemic.

Guidance was widely interpreted as a commitment, rather than a conditional statement.

With the benefit of hindsight, my view is that we did do too much during pandemic.

Market reaction

AUD/USD failed to find any inspiration from Governor Lowe’s farewell speech. The pair is trading 0.20% lower on the day at 0.6359, at the time of writing.