RBA's Hunter: Inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said early Wednesday that recent data has been a little stronger than expected, adding that inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in the third quarter (Q3).
Key quotes
Recent data has been a little stronger than expected.
Inflation likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3.
Labour market and economic conditions might be tighter than assumed.
Employment growth has slowed by more than expected.
Uncertainty about the global outlook remains elevated.
Board will adjust policy as appropriate as new information comes to hand.
Slower productivity lowers economy’s speed limit and pace at which wages can grow.
Slower productivity linked to lack of competition, business dynamism, and capital deepening.
Policy is being set on a one to two year horizon, forward looking.
Estimates for neutral are incredibly wide.
Neutral is not the end point for policy.
Consumption data is being affected by seasonal shifts.
Consumer data has not surprised to the the downside for the RBA.
Expected consumer momentum to soften a little in Q3.
The housing market has been responsive to policy, not surprising.
US trade policy is an unpredictable situation, challenging.
Trade uncertainty does drag on the global economic outlook.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.31% lower on the day to trade at 0.6493.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
