Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock News and Forecast: Why is Peloton stock falling today?

Peloton released earnings after the close on Thursday.
Earnings were a miss and PTON stock collapsed.
PTON shares are down over 30% in the premarket on Friday.

Ivan Brian FXStreet

Peloton (PTON), once the darling stock of lockdown, is not so much now that things have opened up and life is possibly returning to some level of normality. Gyms no longer need to be at home, and demand for personal fitness equipment is certainly leveling off. This appears to have been the case for the trend leader Peloton (symbol PTON) who announced earnings after the close on Thursday. Those earnings were poor, and the stock has suffered a massive 30%-plus fall in the afterhours market.

Peloton (PTON) graph, 15-minute

Peleoton (PTON) stock news

Let us dive straight in here and see exactly how bad those earnings were. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at -$1.25 versus the estimate for -$1.07. Revenue hit $805.2 million, missing the $810.76 estimate. Added to those misses was guidance also below estimates. Peloton guided for revenue of between $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion, but analysts had been expecting $5.4 billion. Sales growth saw a massive slowdown from 230% last year to just 65% this year. No surprise given we all went a bit crazy on lockdown shopping. Could this be a lead indicator of other lockdown trends falling off a cliff, such as gardening and home improvement trends?

Peloton (PTON) stock forecast

As with all these things, some perspective is needed. PTON stock is still up over 100% from this time last year. The monthly chart below shows us just how out of hand things got, and plenty of other stocks will suffer the same fate. Too fast, too furious and now the slowdown.

The weekly PTON chart does show strong support at $85 that PTON shares have now smashed through. This was the point of control or highest volume zone, so that is a strong bearish signal. The next strong volume-based support is at $47 and that might work for a swing trade, but just have a stop in place. Longer-term players may wait below that with $27 as strong support. If PTON does trade down there, it is likely to be on the back of some very negative sentiment, and we do not expect a move there in the short to medium term. Buying, when sentiment is extremely bearish, can lead to a strong turnaround. That would be our logic if PTON did fall as low as $27, but we would have to reassess when or if the time comes.

PTON 1-day chart

Author

Ivan Brian

FXStreet

Ivan Brian started his career with AIB Bank in corporate finance and then worked for seven years at Baxter. He started as a macro analyst before becoming Head of Research and then CFO.

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