Goldman Sachs has revised lower its oil price forecast second quarter and third quarter oil to $30 per barrel and has warned its clients about the possibility of dips in prices to operational stress level and well-head costs near $20 per barrel, according to Yahoo finance.
The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with a significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus. This is the equivalent of a 1Q09 demand shock amid a 2Q15 OPEC production surge for a likely 1Q16 price outcome.
This completely changes the outlook for the oil and gas markets, in our view, and brings back the playbook of the New Oil Order, with low-cost producers increasing supply from their spare capacity to force higher-cost producers to reduce output.
At press time, Brent is trading at $32.60, the lowest level since February 2016. WTI oil is also trading at four-year lows near $29. Both benchmarks are currently down over 27% on the day.
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