Oil: OPEC+ holds course – Commerzbank

OPEC+ reaffirmed its current production strategy, maintaining voluntary cuts through Q1 2026 while planning a new capacity-based quota system for 2027, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

External consultant tapped to assess production capacity

"As expected, OPEC+ confirmed its strategy at its meeting on Sunday. Firstly, the eight producer countries that had voluntarily cut their production confirmed that they would refrain from further production increases in the first quarter of 2026. Secondly, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will continue to meet every two months and convene additional meetings as necessary."

"What is new is that the OPEC Secretariat is developing a mechanism to determine the maximum production capacities of member countries, which in turn will serve as the basis for production quotas in 2027. According to a Bloomberg report, a Dallas-based consulting firm has been commissioned to determine the data. This has postponed a potential controversial issue for the time being."

"After all, discrepancies have arisen between member countries: while some countries could produce more by expanding their production capacities (namely Iraq and Kazakhstan), others are likely to have already reached their capacity limits. Some are no longer even able to meet their production quotas."