NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Downbeat China data shifts focus to 50-day EMA support

  • NZD/USD retraces RBNZ-led gains after China data disappoints Antipodeans.
  • 100-day EMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limits near-term upside.
  • 0.6320 could follow 50-day EMA.

Given the disappointment from China’s data-dump, NZD/USD extends pullback from near-term key resistance confluence as it trades around 0.6390, the intra-day low, while heading into the European open on Thursday.

China’s October month Industrial Production slipped below 5.4% forecast and 5.8% prior to 4.8% while Retail Sales weakened to 7.2% versus 7.9% expected and 7.8% previous readouts. Also adding to the pair’s weakness is a recent comment from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascand who said that the economy needs growth to exceed the potential for inflation.

In doing so, a 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6373 acts as immediate support to watch ahead of multiple lows since Friday, around 0.6320, followed by an ascending trend line since October started, around 0.6300.

On the upside, prices need a daily closing beyond 0.6428/30 resistance confluence, comprising 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-October declines, to aim for monthly top close to 0.6470 and 0.6500 round-figure.

It should also be noted that the pair’s upside past-0.6500 will be challenged by 200-day EMA level of 0.6527.

NZD/USD daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

additional important levels

Today last price 0.6393
Today Daily Change -20 pips
Today Daily Change % -0.31%
Today daily open 0.6413
Daily SMA20 0.6379
Daily SMA50 0.6345
Daily SMA100 0.6447
Daily SMA200 0.6573
Previous Daily High 0.642
Previous Daily Low 0.6327
Previous Weekly High 0.6466
Previous Weekly Low 0.6321
Previous Monthly High 0.6437
Previous Monthly Low 0.6204
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6385
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6363
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6354
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6294
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.626
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6447
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.648
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.654



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends losses toward 1.1250 amid coronavirus concerns

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.1250 as concerns about US coronavirus cases are growing. Eurozone finance ministers are meeting ahead of next week's summit.  US PPI and updated COVID-19 statistics are awaited.


GBP/USD pressured under 1.26 amid risk-off mood, Brexit uncertainty

GBP/USD is trading below 1.26, off the highs. Rising US coronavirus cases are pushing markets lower and the safe-haven dollar higher. Concerns about Brexit and the UK refusal to participate in the EU coronavirus vaccine scheme are weighing on sterling. 


Gold: Well-defined battle lines point to range play around $1800

Gold nurses losses around the $1800 following Thursday’s good two-way businesses. The risk-off theme amid COVID-19 concerns continues to bode well for the US dollar. 

Gold News

Canada Net Change in Employment June Preview: June is looking better and better

Job gains expected to more than double in June. Unemployment rate to drop to 12% from 13.7 in May. Ivey PMI was twice its forecast in June, highest since Nov 2019. USD/CAD would benefit from better June job figures.

Read more

WTI extends Thursday’s drop as virus cases rise

Oil extends overnight sell-off as virus concerns dominate the market sentiment. The resurgence of virus cases in the US has fueled lockdown fears. The US on Thursday registered 65,551 new cases, a record for a 24-hour period.

Oil News