NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Downbeat China data shifts focus to 50-day EMA support

  • NZD/USD retraces RBNZ-led gains after China data disappoints Antipodeans.
  • 100-day EMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limits near-term upside.
  • 0.6320 could follow 50-day EMA.

Given the disappointment from China’s data-dump, NZD/USD extends pullback from near-term key resistance confluence as it trades around 0.6390, the intra-day low, while heading into the European open on Thursday.

China’s October month Industrial Production slipped below 5.4% forecast and 5.8% prior to 4.8% while Retail Sales weakened to 7.2% versus 7.9% expected and 7.8% previous readouts. Also adding to the pair’s weakness is a recent comment from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascand who said that the economy needs growth to exceed the potential for inflation.

In doing so, a 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6373 acts as immediate support to watch ahead of multiple lows since Friday, around 0.6320, followed by an ascending trend line since October started, around 0.6300.

On the upside, prices need a daily closing beyond 0.6428/30 resistance confluence, comprising 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-October declines, to aim for monthly top close to 0.6470 and 0.6500 round-figure.

It should also be noted that the pair’s upside past-0.6500 will be challenged by 200-day EMA level of 0.6527.

NZD/USD daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

additional important levels

Today last price 0.6393
Today Daily Change -20 pips
Today Daily Change % -0.31%
Today daily open 0.6413
Daily SMA20 0.6379
Daily SMA50 0.6345
Daily SMA100 0.6447
Daily SMA200 0.6573
Previous Daily High 0.642
Previous Daily Low 0.6327
Previous Weekly High 0.6466
Previous Weekly Low 0.6321
Previous Monthly High 0.6437
Previous Monthly Low 0.6204
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6385
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6363
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6354
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6294
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.626
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6447
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.648
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.654



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