NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Downbeat China data shifts focus to 50-day EMA support

NZD/USD retraces RBNZ-led gains after China data disappoints Antipodeans.
100-day EMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limits near-term upside.
0.6320 could follow 50-day EMA.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Given the disappointment from China’s data-dump, NZD/USD extends pullback from near-term key resistance confluence as it trades around 0.6390, the intra-day low, while heading into the European open on Thursday.

China’s October month Industrial Production slipped below 5.4% forecast and 5.8% prior to 4.8% while Retail Sales weakened to 7.2% versus 7.9% expected and 7.8% previous readouts. Also adding to the pair’s weakness is a recent comment from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascand who said that the economy needs growth to exceed the potential for inflation.

In doing so, a 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6373 acts as immediate support to watch ahead of multiple lows since Friday, around 0.6320, followed by an ascending trend line since October started, around 0.6300.

On the upside, prices need a daily closing beyond 0.6428/30 resistance confluence, comprising 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-October declines, to aim for monthly top close to 0.6470 and 0.6500 round-figure.

It should also be noted that the pair’s upside past-0.6500 will be challenged by 200-day EMA level of 0.6527.

NZD/USD daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	0.6393
Today Daily Change	-20 pips
Today Daily Change %	-0.31%
Today daily open	0.6413

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6379
Daily SMA50	0.6345
Daily SMA100	0.6447
Daily SMA200	0.6573

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.642
Previous Daily Low	0.6327
Previous Weekly High	0.6466
Previous Weekly Low	0.6321
Previous Monthly High	0.6437
Previous Monthly Low	0.6204
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6385
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6363
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6354
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6294
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.626
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6447
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.648
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.654

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD hovers around 1.1850 ahead of FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD stays on the back foot around 1.1850 in the European session on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar demand. Traders now look forward to the Minutes of the Fed's January monetary policy meeting for fresh signals on future rate cuts.

GBP/USD defends 1.3550 after UK inflation data

GBP/USD is holding above 1.3550 in Wednesday's European morning, little changed following the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. The UK inflation eased as expected in January, reaffirming bets for a March BoE interest rate cut, especially after Tuesday's weak employment report.

Gold retains bullish bias amid Fed rate cut bets, ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold sticks to modest intraday gains through the early European session, reversing a major part of the previous day's heavy losses of more than 2%, to the $4,843-4,842 region or a nearly two-week low. That said, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for bulls ahead of the FOMC Minutes, which will look for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's rate-cut path.

Pi Network rally defies market pressure ahead of its first anniversary

Pi Network is trading above $0.1900 at press time on Wednesday, extending the weekly gains by nearly 8% so far. The steady recovery is supported by a short-term pause in mainnet migration, which reduces pressure on the PI token supply for Centralized Exchanges. The technical outlook focuses on the $0.1919 resistance as bullish momentum increases.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.

Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple face downside risk as bears regain control

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple remain under pressure on Wednesday, with the broader trend still sideways. BTC is edging below $68,000, nearing the lower consolidating boundary, while ETH and XRP also declined slightly, approaching their key supports.