EUR/USD holds near lows amid news of an early departure of ECB's Lagarde

EUR/USD remains close to weekly lows at 1.1805 with upside attempts capped around 1.1850.
News reports suggest that ECB's Lagarde will step down before the end of her term.
Market volatility remains subdued with all eyes on the Fed's minutes.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) remains on its back foot against the US Dollar (USD) this week. The pair’s recovery attempts from the 1.1805 lows were capped below 1.1850, and the common currency eased to the 1.1835 area, amid rumours that European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde plans to leave the bank before the end of her term in October 2027.

A Financial Times report released on Wednesday states that Lagarde is considering stepping down as president of the ECB ahead of the French elections, due in April 2027, to give French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz the chance to select her successor.

This news has stirred an otherwise dozy market, with investors on a wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, due later on Wednesday. This report, together with the US Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and January's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due on Friday, is likely to set the pair's near-term direction.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains vulnerable below the reverse trendline

EUR/USD has found support in the 1.1800 area, but the immediate trend remains bearish, while below the broken trendline, now in the vicinity of 1.1880. Indicators in the 4-hour chart remain moderately negative. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, beneath the midline, consistent with a soft tone.

Resistance aligns at 1.1855, is holding bulls for now ahead of the 1.1880-1.1890 area where the mentioned trendline and the February 12 and 13 highs meet the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the late January selloff.

On the downside, immediate support is at Tuesday's low of 1.1805, which closes the path to the February 6 low, at 1.1765.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.

USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold recovers on positive US-Iran headlines

Gold extends its recovery during American trading hours on Monday, supported by falling Oil prices following positive headlines on US-Iran talks. The metal regains ground after hitting a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. However, the rebound lacks conviction as the fundamental backdrop continues to raise doubts over a sustained recovery.

Bitcoin braces for US midterm elections as historical sell-offs revive downside concerns

Bitcoin (BTC) braces for the impact of the US midterm elections, just a week after the $6 billion hack from Binance. Historically, congressional elections have negatively affected not just the president’s party but also Bitcoin. In the last 22 midterms, the ruling party has gained House seats only twice, while the three most recent elections coincided with Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms.

Why strong US growth could not stop the bond rally and AI selloff

The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate, yet Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq ended October with its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The market is no longer rewarding capital expenditure simply because it supports growth. Investors are testing whether that expenditure can produce cash flow and returns above the cost of capital.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.