NZD/USD steadies near bottom of range as Dollar weakens on soft inflation and policy concerns

The NZD/USD pair is hovering near the 0.5900 level after giving back earlier gains in Wednesday trading. The pair remains under modest pressure but shows signs of stabilization as price action consolidates near the lower end of the daily range. The subdued performance in the Kiwi comes as the US Dollar struggles across the board, weighed down by fresh speculation of a deliberate US Dollar weakening strategy and signs of a cooling inflation trend.

Market focus remains on the broader narrative that the Trump administration may be supporting a weaker USD as part of its trade realignment push. Talks between US and South Korean officials regarding FX policy have triggered a wave of USD selling across Asia, adding pressure on the Greenback. The recent dip in US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.3% year-over-year, the softest since February 2021, has also amplified rate cut expectations. Although the Fed is expected to remain on hold in the near term, swaps markets are still pricing in 75 basis points of easing over the next year, down from 125 bp last week.

Meanwhile, New Zealand's economic outlook remains clouded by expectations of a dovish shift from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Analysts widely anticipate the RBNZ to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its next policy meeting, citing weaker domestic growth prospects. With no major data from New Zealand this week, NZD price action is driven mostly by external developments, particularly the shifting sentiment around the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the NZD/USD pair is trading close to its daily low near 0.5896, within a broader range between 0.5884 and 0.5969. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in neutral territory in the 50s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, signaling downside momentum. However, Bull Bear Power is trending near the zero line, hinting at underlying buy conditions. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stochastic RSI) – Fast also reflects a neutral posture. While the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) points to continued bearishness, both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are aligned with a bullish bias, supported by the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 30-day SMA as well. Immediate support levels are seen at 0.5884, 0.5885, and 0.5885, while resistance lies at 0.5908, 0.5920, and 0.5928. With several long-term technical indicators signaling upside potential and the pair trading at a key support area, NZD/USD retains a mildly bullish bias, provided broader USD softness continues.