NZD/USD Price Forecast: Trades flat near 0.5950

NZD/USD surrenders initial gains and turns flat around 0.5950 in the aftermath of the RBNZ interest rate announcement.
The RBNZ cuts its OCR by 25 bps to 3.25%, as expected.
The US Dollar gains on hopes of a potential US-EU trade deal.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair gives up a majority of its initial gains and flattens around 0.5950 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the Kiwi pair attracted bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%, as expected.

The RBNZ guided that the monetary expansion cycle will be deeper than what they had anticipated earlier, citing global economic risks and inflation is within the bank’s target.

Meanwhile, an extension in the US Dollar’s (USD) recovery move has also weighed on the Kiwi pair’s early gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 99.80, following Tuesday’s recovery.

The US Dollar rises on hopes that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) will reach a trade deal soon. During North American trading hours, EU officials stated that US trade negotiators Howard Lutnick and Jameison Greer have agreed to trade discussions every other day. Additionally, a report from German newspaper Handelsblatt has reported that German carmakers are in talks with the US trade ministry on tariffs and aim to reach an agreement by early July.

NZD/USD strives to break the Bullish Flag formation on the upside. Historically, the chart pattern resumes its strong rally after a breakout of the consolidation. The near-term trend of the pair is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 0.5925.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI holds above the 60.00 level.

The Kiwi pair is expected to rise towards the September 11 low of 0.6100 and the October 9 high of 0.6145 after breaking above the intraday high around 0.6030.

In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the May 12 low of 0.5846 will expose it to the round-level support of 0.5800, followed by the April 10 high of 0.5767.

NZD/USD daily chart

Economic Indicator

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

Why it matters to traders?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

Japanese Yen edges up but remains close to the 160.00 intervention threshold

The Japanese Yen edges up against the US Dollar on Friday, but the USD/JPY pair remains above 159.90 at the time of writing, unable to put a significant distance from the 160.00 level, considered the limit of tolerable JPY weakness for Japanese authorities.

Gold returns to the red, awaits US NFP

Gold price is looking to test the weekly lows, while in the red near $4,450 in the early European session on Friday. The precious metal remains vulnerable amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

Arthur Hayes' “Holy Trinity” is dead: Exits Zcash after Orchard Pool exploit

Arthur Hayes has entirely dumped his “Holy Trinity” holdings by offloading his Zcash holdings on Friday. The privacy coin is down 13% so far on Friday, extending Thursday’s 26% decline after an Orchard Shielded Pool audit revealed a critical vulnerability that allowed the undetectable minting of fake coins. Hayes continues to hold Worldcoin ahead of the upcoming SpaceX Initial Public Offering, on the chance of a “high-beta proxy” rally.

Nonfarm Payrolls set to show stable labor market in May as markets digest Fed hawkish shift

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for May on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 85K following the surprisingly strong 185K and 115K increases recorded in March and April, respectively.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.