NZD/USD Price Analysis: Stays on the way to 0.6800 on upbeat China PMI

NZD/USD seesaws above previously important resistance, recently off intraday low.
Bullish MACD, daily closing beyond 15-week-old trend line hurdle favor buyers to aim for 100-day EMA.
China’s NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs joined Caixin Manufacturing PMI to portray February’s recovery in key activities.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

NZD/USD pares intraday losses a three-day top near 0.6780 during Tuesday’s Asian session.

The kiwi pair offered the first daily closing beyond a downward sloping trend line from mid-November the previous day. The resistance breakout gained support from China’s February PMIs to keep buyers hopeful. However, risk catalysts and the USD rebound seem to test the bulls.

That said, China’s headline NBS Manufacturing PMI for February rose to 50.2 versus 49.9 expected and 50.1 prior. Further, the Non-Manufacturing PMI crossed 51.1 previous readouts with 51.6 figures for the stated month. Additionally, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI also rallied to 50.4 compared to 49.3 expected and 49.1 prior.

Given the trend line breakout and firmer data from the key customer NZD/USD prices are likely to stay directed towards the 100-day EMA level of 0.6808.

However, a clear upside break of the stated EMA will enable the bulls to challenge January’s peak of 0.6891.

Alternatively, a daily closing below the stated resistance-turned-support line, near 0.6750 by the press time, could drag the quote toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October-January downside, near 0.6690.

It should be noted, however, that an upward sloping support line from January 28, close to 0.6670 at the latest, will challenge NZD/USD bears afterward.

NZD/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Further upside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	0.6765
Today Daily Change	0.0000
Today Daily Change %	0.00%
Today daily open	0.6765

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6679
Daily SMA50	0.6729
Daily SMA100	0.6852
Daily SMA200	0.6943

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6777
Previous Daily Low	0.6665
Previous Weekly High	0.681
Previous Weekly Low	0.663
Previous Monthly High	0.681
Previous Monthly Low	0.6565
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6734
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6708
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6694
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6623
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6582
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6807
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6848
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6919

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1600, seems vulnerable near multi-month low

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1530 region, or the lowest level since November 2025, and lower for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. Spot prices slide back below the 1.1600 mark during the Asian session and seem vulnerable to slide further.

GBP/USD weakens to near 1.3300 as geopolitical risks bolster US Dollar

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3310 during the early European session on Wednesday. Escalating conflict in the Middle East triggers a "flight to safety," supporting the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Traders will take more cues from the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index reports, which are due later on Wednesday.

Gold sticks to intraday gains above $5,150; upside seems limited amid bullish USD

Gold preserves its modest intraday gains through the Asian session on Wednesday and currently trades just above the $5,150 level, up around 1.30% for the day. Investors remain concerned about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy amid an already uncertain environment.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple struggle for direction as consolidation persists

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple prices trade with a cautious tone at the time of writing on Wednesday as upside momentum continues to fade across the broader crypto market. BTC remains within a parallel channel, ETH struggles below key resistance, while XRP remains fragile within a descending channel. These top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization continue to struggle to establish a directional bias amid the consolidation phase.

When rates start driving the bus through a war zone

The volatility regime itself is also changing character. EM carry trades thrive in calm markets. They suffocate in environments that resemble Buckaroo Banzai trading conditions, where headlines move faster than models. That is exactly the world investors are now trying to recalibrate to. Euro rate volatility had been remarkably subdued even while equities were wobbling. That stability is now being questioned, and once volatility leaks into rates it rarely stays contained. Indeed, carry trades love calm seas. War turns the ocean into white water.

Ripple falters amid sell-off jitters and negative funding rates

Ripple (XRP) has come under pressure, drifting lower to $1.35 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The over 2% correction looks poised to erase the previous day’s gains, which lifted the remittance token to $1.42.