NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls get a boost on hawkish RBNZ, bears still in command

NZD/USD consolidates its loses and jumps near 0.5940, but it will set its fifth consecutive weekly loss.
USD closes the week steady, driven upwards by a sour market mood and hawkish bets on the Fed.
Hawkish signals from the RBNZ limit the Kiwi’s downside.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Friday, the NZD/USD recovered some ground as the pair corrected oversold conditions on the daily chart. On the one hand, the Kiwi got a boost from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Silk’s messages, while the USD, measured by the DXY index, traded at its highest point since mid June.

The DXY index consolidated itself above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and jumped to 103.60, its highest level since June 13 and then settled at 103.30. Factors driving the USD upwards during the week included the hawkish stance seen by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Wednesday’s minutes from the July meeting, which boosted US yields and the sour market mood due to the worrying Chinese economic situation. In line with that, markets grew concerned due to Evergrande filing for protection from creditors in a US bankruptcy court.

On the Kiwi’s side, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Karen Silk delivered some hawkish messages and warned that upside risk to inflation may push the bank to retain rates higher for a longer time. As a reaction, the NZD is trading strong against most of its rivals and is one of the session’s top performers alongside the JPY and the USD.

NZD/USD Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, the technical outlook for the NZD/USD remains neutral to bearish as the bulls show signs of recovery. With an ascending slope in oversold territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a potential increase in buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) displays weaker red bars. On the other hand, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting that the bears are firmly in control of the bigger picture, leaving the buyers vulnerable.

Support levels: 0.5930, 0.5910, 0.5900.

Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6020, 0.6050.

NZD/USD Daily chart

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.5942
Today Daily Change	0.0015
Today Daily Change %	0.25
Today daily open	0.5927

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6088
Daily SMA50	0.6155
Daily SMA100	0.6173
Daily SMA200	0.6233

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.5967
Previous Daily Low	0.5903
Previous Weekly High	0.6118
Previous Weekly Low	0.5974
Previous Monthly High	0.6413
Previous Monthly Low	0.612
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.5927
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.5942
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.5898
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.5868
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.5834
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.5961
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.5996
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6025

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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