• Risk appetite favors the kiwi on Monday.
  • US dollar erases NFP gains, DXY falls toward 106.00.
  • NZD/USD remains supported by the 20-day SMA.

The NZD/USD is rising on Monday, although it trimmed gains during the last hours. The pair peaked at 0.6303 and then pulled back to 0.6280. It remains on positive ground for the day, supported by a weaker US dollar and risk appetite.

The greenback is falling across the board as US yields move to the downside. The US 10-year yield stands at 2.76%, far from Friday’s top of 2.88%. The DXY falls 0.25% and trades below 106.30.

A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed a decline in inflation expectations. “The outcome provides some relief but does little to alter the bigger picture - short-term inflation expectations (2y) remain well above the 1-3% target band, Q2 headline CPI and non-tradeable inflation handily exceeded the RBNZ's May MPS forecasts while core inflation measures are edging higher. Along with accelerating wages growth, the data suggest that the RBNZ's job is still not done and look for a 4th straight 50bps hike at the upcoming Aug meeting,” explained analysts at TD Securities.

In the US, the key number of the week is the CPI on Wednesday. The NFP report opened again the door to a more aggressive Federal Reserve. Inflation figures (also the PPI on Thursday) will likely impact on Fed's rate expectations.

Technical outlook

The NZD/USD remains supported by the 0.6210/20 area and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), today at 0.6230. A consolidation below those levels should point to more losses in the short-term.

On the upside, NZD/USD is testing the 0.6300 area that contains the 55-day SMA. A break higher could lead to a test of the August high at 0.6332.

Technical levels

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6296
Today Daily Change 0.0058
Today Daily Change % 0.93
Today daily open 0.6238
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6223
Daily SMA50 0.6287
Daily SMA100 0.647
Daily SMA200 0.6642
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6308
Previous Daily Low 0.6212
Previous Weekly High 0.6353
Previous Weekly Low 0.6212
Previous Monthly High 0.633
Previous Monthly Low 0.6061
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6249
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6271
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6197
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6157
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6101
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6293
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6349
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6389

 

 

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