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NZD/USD having a difficult time moving off lows

Following a recovery attempt back above 0.70 psychological level during the European session, NZD/USD came under renewed selling pressure and refreshed its lowest level since Jan. 11 at 0.6970. The pair has been struggling to correct its losses since and is now at 0.6985.

GDT drop within expectations

According to the latest New Zealand dairy auction, GDT price index dropped by 6.3% compared to the previous result of -3.20%.Markets disregarded this data as NZX Futures trading suggested that the key Whole Milk Powder category could drop by as much as 9%.

US trade balance data showed that the deficit jumped to $48.5 billion in January broadly in-line with expectations. March rate hike probability, which is at 84.1% according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, continues to drive the markets before Friday's critical NFP numbers. Later in the session, The Economic Optimism Index, released by The Investor's Business Daily (IBD)  fell to 55.3 from 56.4, allowing DXY to step back towards 101.70 area.

Technical levels

Technical supports for the pair are aligned at 0.6970 (daily low), 0.69 (psychological level) and finally 0.6860 (Dec. 23 low). On the upside, the first resistance could be found at 0.7000 (psychological level), followed by 0.7045 (Monday high), and 0.7100 (psychological level).

1 Week
Avg Forecast 0.6978
100.0%87.0%25.0%0203040506070809010000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 25% Bullish
  • 62% Bearish
  • 12% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Month
Avg Forecast 0.7055
100.0%87.0%60.0%0606570758085909510000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 60% Bullish
  • 27% Bearish
  • 13% Sideways
Bias Bullish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 0.6923
100.0%69.0%19.0%0203040506070809010000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 19% Bullish
  • 50% Bearish
  • 31% Sideways
Bias Bearish

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
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