NZD/USD falls to near 0.6100 as RBNZ expects to keep rates unchanged

NZD/USD extended losses to near 0.6100 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Investors are awaiting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday. It's widely anticipated that the RBNZ will maintain its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5%, marking the seventh consecutive meeting without changes. Policymakers are expected to emphasize the necessity of maintaining a restrictive policy stance for an extended period to steer inflation back within the 1-3% target range.

Recent data showed a decline in the country’s 2-year inflation expectations to their lowest point in nearly three years during the second quarter. This has fueled speculation that the RBNZ might contemplate rate cuts later in 2024.

Support for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could arise from China's announcement of a comprehensive package to bolster its struggling property market. China's finance ministry plans to start raising 1 trillion Yuan in issuing 20 to 50 years bonds for larger stimulus measures. Measures include the relaxation of mortgage regulations and encouragement for local governments to purchase unsold homes. This development may boost sentiment in Kiwi markets, given the close trade ties between New Zealand and China.

The US Dollar (USD) remains stable as there are no major economic data releases from the United States (US). The Greenback receives support from higher US Treasury yields. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a cautious stance regarding inflation and the possibility of rate cuts in 2024.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has seen a slight uptick to 49.6%, compared to 48.6% a week ago.