Nonfarm payrolls expectations - Nomura


Analysts at Nomura explained that they expect nonfarm payroll employment to increase 180k in September, a slight deceleration from the 201k pace in August and just below the six-month average of 192k. 

Key Quotes:

"Our forecast remains consistent with an economy growing at roughly 3% and would be well above the pace of employment growth required to absorb new labor market entrants. "

"Employment indicators during the month remained in healthy territory with low initial jobless claims and elevated regional business survey employment indices. We do not expect Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in the Carolinas around mid-September, to affect September’s payroll employment numbers materially."

"The hurricane’s landfall on the last day of the BLS survey week (the week containing the 12th of the month) likely minimized the impact on employment as any worker who received a paycheck for that week would be counted in the survey. This stands in contrast with Hurricane Harvey and Irma last year, the latter of which made landfall at the very beginning of the survey week, resulting in significant disruptions to payroll employment."

"After a 3k decline in employment during August, we expect manufacturers to add 10k net new jobs in September. However, with increased trade tensions, further signs of weakening in manufacturing hiring activity could portend a broader slowdown in industrial activity, increasing the importance of the September manufacturing hiring data. "

ADP report adds upside risks to forecast

"Finally, the ADP employment report showed a strong 230k gain in September private employment, driven by a strong 34k gain in construction sector jobs, which appears to be at odds with the recent slowdown in residential construction activity."

"The ADP report adds some upside risk to our forecast. While, as discussed above, we think that weather factors didn't affect nonfarm payroll numbers substantially, the strong ADP report does not necessarily corroborate our view as the impact of Hurricane Florence on the ADP report was likely muted as it counts the number of employees on the payroll whether or not they were actually paid during the survey period. Moreover, the employment index for the ISM non-manufacturing survey rose 5.7pp to 62.4, the highest level ever recorded, adding further upside risk to our forecast."

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD struggling to hold above 1.1000

The EUR/USD pair is trading at one-month lows just above the 1.1000 level, undermined by softer-than-expected EU data and persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade relationship.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD stuck around 1.2850

The Pound traded lifeless this Tuesday, confined to familiar levels against most rival despite mixed employment data and mounting tensions heading into December’s election.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY hits fresh lows under 109.00 as Wall Street erases gains

The USD/JPY pair printed fresh lows during the American session as equity prices moved off highs in Wall Street.

USD/JPY News

Gold: Remains vulnerable near 3-month lows

Gold remained depressed through the mid-European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near three-month lows, just above $1450 level. 

Gold News

Bitcoin: Google's threat, halving, and the best cost strategy

Google threat Bitcoin ecosystem with its Sycamore Quantum Computer. According to experts, the next halving in the Bitcoin mining rewards will occur on May 14, 2020. Dollar-Cost Averaging strategy has yielded a return of over 500 % since 2014.
 

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures