On the basis of the ongoing covid risks, Nomura lowers China's GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023.
Nomura lowered China's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.8% from 2.9% while that for 2023 was slashed to 4% from 4.3%.
Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said: “In GDP terms, nearly 20% of China’s economy was negatively affected by Covid controls as of Monday, close to the high of 21.2% recorded in mid-April during Shanghai’s lockdown.”
“Beijing has recently shown early signs of willingness to reopen, and it has rolled out some fine-tuning measures, but the reopening may be a prolonged process with discomfort.”
“Many lockdowns or controls are implemented without public announcement. “
“We believe [the southwestern municipality of] Chongqing is currently experiencing the most severe local lockdown in China, based on our observation of numerous mobility metrics.”
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