"The Federal Reserve decision will be the key scheduled event of the week for the US and should result in a formal announcement of the balance sheet reduction strategy," ING economists said in a report on Friday.
"We have known the structure for a couple of months, which is a very gradual tapering of the reinvestment of maturing assets. The bond market has taken this in its stride so far and we do not expect any major volatility due to this announcement. However, the Fed releases new economic forecasts and there will be significant interest in its expectations for the path of the Fed fund’s target rate. Currently the Fed is anticipating four 25bp rate hikes by the end of 2018, whereas the market is only pricing in one such move. We would not be surprised to see the median forecast to show that the Fed now feels three hikes is the most likely scenario, reflecting the more subdued inflationary environment than anticipated and some near-term uncertainty on growth, as a result of the recent hurricanes."
"For the UK, we will be focusing on BoE speakers. It appears that the BoE is trying to prepare the market for a potential rate hike in November; so, any direct hints from Mark Carney is clearly likely to heighten such expectations and offer further support to sterling."
"It will be another calm week in Germany, with all political parties preparing for Election Day. No poll results will be released in the last few days in the run up to the election. It currently looks as if the race for No.3 will be the most important aspect of the election on 24 September."
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