In the view of Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group, extra gains could push USD/JPY to the mid-149.00s sooner rather than later.
24-hour view: After USD rebounded to a high of 148.43 last Friday, we indicated yesterday that “the rebound in USD has scope to extend, but it is unlikely to break clearly above 149.00.” In line with our expectations, USD rose but did not break 149.00 (high of 148.97). Upward momentum has improved, albeit not much. Today, USD is likely to advance above 149.00. However, the major resistance at 149.50 is likely out of reach (there is another resistance at 149.20). Support is at 148.60; a breach of 148.30 would mean that USD is not advancing further.
Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (25 Sep, spot at 148.40), we indicated that while upward momentum has improved, it is not enough to indicate that USD is ready to advance in a sustained manner. We also indicated that USD has to break and stay above 149.00 before further advance is likely. In NY trade, USD rose to a high of 148.97. While there is no clear break of 149.00, upward momentum has improved further. From here, as long as USD stays above 147.80 (‘strong support’ level was at 147.40 yesterday), it could advance to 149.50.
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