NABE Survey: Businesses see lower odds US in or entering recession

Early Monday morning in Europe, the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) released details of its January 4-11 survey on the US business conditions while pushing back the recession woes in the world’s largest economy.

“The likelihood that the United States is already in recession or will fall into one this year has dropped over the past three months to 56% from a nearly two-thirds possibility,” said NABE per Reuters.

Key findings

Approximately 53% of those polled said they had a more than-even expectation the US would enter a recession over the next 12 months, while 3% indicated they thought the country was already in one.

As per the previous poll released in October, 64% of respondents indicated that the US economy was either already in a recession or had a more-than-even likelihood of entering one in the next 12 months.

The poll also showed respondents expected inflation to ease within their companies and industries, with a forward-looking gauge for prices charged falling by 10 percentage points since the last survey to the lowest reading since October 2020.

Market reaction

The news fails to inspire any market reaction amid the off in China and light calendar in Asia, not to forget the pre-Fed blackout period of two weeks. Even so, the EUR/USD bulls appear to run out of steam around 1.0900 by the press time.