Moderna Stock News and Forecast: MRNA shares falls on Pfizer pill news

Moderna (MRNA) shares shed some 16% on Friday, having already lost nearly 18% on Thursday. Calamitous news for holders of this one, but the meteoric rise for 2021 is still intact as MRNA shares remain up over 126% for 2021 and 227% over the last year. Perhaps a dose of perspective is needed.

Vaccine manufacturers have been under the cosh since Merck (MRK) came out with news of a pill for covid at the start of October, and now Pfizer has followed that up with an antiviral pill of its own. Antiviral treatments are not vaccines, rather they aim to treat people with the actual disease and lower the hospitalization and death rate. A pill is seen as hurting the demand for vaccines going forward.

Moderna (MRNA) stock news

Merck (MRK) as mentioned was first out with news of its antiviral treatment for covid. Merck's tablet is called Molnupiravir, and the company announced on October 1 that the drug reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%. Merck said in the same press release that it planned to seek immediate emergency use authorization for the drug from the US as soon as possible and from other agencies globally. That news was enough to send Moderna shares down over 11%. Just as the stock looked to be stabilizing, Pfizer (PFE) announced on November 5 its own results into an antiviral drug it has been developing. MRNA stock plunged nearly 17% as mentioned on the news. 

Moderna (MRNA) stock forecast

The move on Friday cracked the 200-day moving average. This is big news for technical analysis and shows the size of the retracement. Now MRNA is bearish on all time frames. $188.41 is the next target support. This is a strong level. It was tested three times before finally breaking back in November 2020, February 2021 and May 2021.

Once MRNA shares broke above this level they retraced to test it, but buyers once again stepped in. At this $188 level support from volume is also strong. This is where the majority of the volume profile has been and the point of control is at $155.80. The point of control is the price with the highest amount of volume. Now nothing goes down in a straight line forever, so expect some form of consolidation around these recent losses. Retracements to the 200-day at $250 or the gap at $275 should not be too surprising, but the overall trend is lower unless these levels are broken. Once below $188 we can start to look at buying dips again as the volume profile lends itself to some support.

Short-term swing traders may look to buy the dip at current levels and can take some solace from the strongly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI). Before diving in, we would look for a confirmation signal from the stochastic crossover. Buying dips in something falling at this speed is like trying to catch a falling knife.

MRNA daily chart