|

JPY advances on narrowing yield spreads to 2022 Lows – Scotiabank

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening again, up 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) as USD/JPY moves back toward Monday’s lows and threatens a broader retracement of its mid-November weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Markets hold steady on BoJ path with 25bp hike priced by March

"The yen is up 0.3% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as it pushes back toward Monday’s highs (USDJPY lows) and threatens a more meaningful retracement of the weakness observed since mid-November."

"The outlook for relative central bank policy remains supportive and yield spreads are narrowing to fresh multi-year lows at levels last seen in 2022."

"Domestic rate expectations are little changed with markets pricing 20bpts of tightening for December and a full 25bpt hike by March. There are no major domestic releases scheduled through the end of the weak, leaving the focus squarely centered on broader developments."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.6950 after RBA minutes

AUD/USD attracts follow-through selling during Tuesday’s Asian session, looking to extend the overnight rejection slide from 0.7000, or a two-week top, following the release of RBA meeting Minutes. The US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near its highest level since April 2025 as energy-driven inflation risks keep December Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. Adding to this, geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven USD.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold clings to gains just below $4,200

Gold fades Monday’s small pullback and picks up renewed pace, briefly flirting with the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce. The precious metal’s recovery comes in line with the fresh downward trend in the Greenback in combination with shrinking US Treasury yields across the board and easing tensions on the geopolitical front.

Bitcoin rebounds despite cautious sentiment

Bitcoin rebounds over 2%, trading above $83,500 on Tuesday, recovering the previous day’s losses. Persistent geopolitical tensions and mixed signals continue to weigh on risk appetite, keeping investors cautious despite BTC’s recovery.

US – Midterm update: Democratic lead holds three weeks before election

With three weeks until the US midterm election on 3 November, prediction markets are more or less unchanged. Polymarket continues to put the probability of a Democratic sweep at 60-65%. The House is seen as a fairly safe Democratic win, with a probability of around 90%.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?
Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?