Johnson and Johnson trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating lower

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

Price

JNJ last price was $ 152.57.

Trend analysis

In the short term Johnson and Johnson has been accelerating lower. In the long term Johnson and Johnson has been accelerating lower.

Value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the JNJ price increased 6 days and decreased 13 days.

For every up day, there were 2.17 down days.

The average return on days where the price increased is 0.9447%

The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.9353%

Performance

Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -6.39% percent.

Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.3363% percent.

Trade idea

With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Sell $ 229,397 USD of Johnson and Johnson, take profit at $ 151.4337 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,708 USD gain, stop out at $ 153.2351 with 49.98% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon

Intraday predictions

JNJ trend analysis

JNJ last price was $ 152.57 . The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating.

JNJ value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the JNJ price increased 6 days and decreased 13 days. For every up day, there were 2.17 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.9447% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.9353% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -6.39% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.3363% percent.

JNJ worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for JNJ, is $ 150.6279 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 154.5121 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 153.2351 could trade and that $ 151.4337 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for JNJ, is $ 150.6279 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 154.5121 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that $ 153.2351 could trade and that $ 151.4337 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability vs payout chart

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key takeaways

• Price today $ 152.57.

• Over the past 19 days, the JNJ price increased 6 days and decreased 13 Days.

• For every up day, there were 2.17 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.9447%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.9353%.

• Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -6.39% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.3363% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been accelerating: $ 0.1333 per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by $ -2.41.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -1.5796 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 0.94.