INR: Continued positive growth momentum – Commerzbank

The S&P Global Flash manufacturing and services PMIs for October rebounded after slipping in September. The manufacturing PMI rose to 57.4 from an eight-month low of 56.5 in September, while the services PMI edged up to 57.9 from 57.7 in September. The PMIs give a relatively narrow picture of the overall economy, but they still carry some value, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Charlie Lay notes.

RBI to stay prudent

“The bottom line is that they remain well above the 50-level and still point to strong economic momentum. Encouragingly, there were ongoing signs of firm domestic demand and strong new export orders, suggesting India continues to benefit from the global expansion. This is translating to positive employment growth, which should in turn help support domestic consumption.”

“In terms of implications for monetary policy, it will reinforce the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) cautious and judicious approach to policy easing. RBI recently shifted to a neutral tone, but there are no signs of an imminent easing. The recent uptick in inflation for September, back above RBI’s mid-point target of 4%, will cement their view to stay prudent.”

“This will also provide some support for INR. We saw this dynamic play out in the past month. INR held up the best among Asian currencies amid the USD rebound. For example, since the end of September, Asian currencies ex-Japan retreated by around 3% vs USD but INR is down only by 0.3%.”