Gold near session's high while geopolitical risks are peaking
- Gold sets forth winning streak, rising over 4% in just two trading days.
- Geopolitical risks from the Trump administration, Asian currency turmoil and Israel are spurring investors to head back into Gold.
- Upside risks persist on several fronts, increasing the chances that Gold tests its all-time high at $3,500.
Gold (XAU/USD) hits $3,380 at the time of writing, having printed a fresh two-week high as geopolitical tensions around the globe continue to support investors’ demand for safe-haven assets. In the Middle East, Israel is further preparing its ground offensive in the Gaza Strip with the aim of fully controlling the area.
In the United States (US), pressure is building on US President Donald Trump and his administration to finally announce a first trade deal. Trump and his cabinet have been very vocal about deals being imminent, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying that the first trade deal will be with a top ten economy, Fox News reported.
Meanwhile, some very sharp moves in the Forex market are also keeping investors on edge. Traders are trying to assess how to position themselves after the fallout of the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) move seen on Monday after it appreciated sharply against the US Dollar (USD). The bigger risk is having a domino effect on the US Dollar – which could weaken against other major Asian currencies – making it no longer a steady and reliable safe haven currency and thus benefiting Gold.
An additional element that pushes the precious metal even higher this Tuesday, comes from the German Bundestag, the German Parliament. A rather ceremonial vote to secure the nomination of Chancellor Friedrich Merz fell short of a majority. This event has never taken place in German history and means that the Chancellor already lost trust of the coalition majority, which opens up the door to German political uncertainty with no clues on when a new vote could take place, or a new Chancellor needs to be elected, or even new snap elections need to be held.
Daily digest market movers: Carney to Washington
- Freshly nominated Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet US President Donald Trump in the White House this Tuesday to discuss the recent tariff implementations from the Trump administration on Canadian goods.
- Market sentiment is improving a touch on Tuesday after the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) move on Monday, but the focus on Asian currencies persists. Saxo’s Chief Investment Strategist in Singapore, Charu Chanana, said that "the real action today is in Asian FX”. Chanana went on by saying that "If these currencies keep strengthening sharply, it could spark fears of a 'reverse Asian currency crisis', with potential ripple effects in the bond market amid fears that Asian institutions reassess their unhedged exposure to Treasury holdings," Reuters reports. Generally, Gold benefits when US bonds are starting to show lower yield returns for investors.
- The Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to expand its warehouse network to Hong Kong, helping to raise the profile of its yuan-denominated products, including for the precious metal beyond mainland China, Bloomberg reports.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May's meeting stands at 2.4% against a 97.6% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 29.8% chance of a rate cut.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Show me the deals!
Gold price is rallying higher in what looks to be a second wave of safe haven inflow in the precious metal. Balances and powers in financial markets are shifting, and one of them seems to be the Greenback losing its status as a safe haven in benefit of Bullion. In this scenario, Gold is set to rocket higher should President Trump and his administration be unable to soon announce a trade deal with any country, preferably a G20 one.
On the upside, the R1 resistance at $3,368 has already been broken in a topside test in early trading this Tuesday. Should some follow-through come, the R2 resistance at $3,403 might see a test very swiftly. The all-time high at $3,500 might be a bit too far off for traders to test already on Tuesday.
On the downside, the Pivot Point at $3,303 is the first level to watch. Further down, the daily S1 support comes in at $3,268, coinciding with the lows of last week on April 30, 28, 25 and 23. The technical level at $3,245 should do the trick and hold in case of any sudden reversals.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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Author
Filip Lagaart
FXStreet
Filip Lagaart is a former sales/trader with over 15 years of financial markets expertise under its belt.
