Gold Price News and Forecast: XAU/USD holds weekly support, eyes a 38.2% Fibo retracement

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Gold Price Analysis: Looks to stabilize around $1550 after Fed-led wild ride

Having witnessed a volatile early Asian session, gold (futures on Comex) is stabilizing near the mid-1550s, as investors await fresh catalysts for the next direction in the prices.

The yellow-metal opened with a $45 bullish opening gap this Monday, as traders sold-off the greenback across its main competitors, responding to the surprise rate cut delivered by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) late Sunday.

The dollar sank in tandem with the US Treasury yields, as the demand for the US bonds rose, with markets unwilling to buy into the Fed rate cut decision that is said to cushion the blow of the coronavirus impact on the economy.

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1547.39
Today Daily Change	17.03
Today Daily Change %	1.11
Today daily open	1530.36

Trends
Daily SMA20	1624.02
Daily SMA50	1589.04
Daily SMA100	1535.33
Daily SMA200	1499.05

Levels
Previous Daily High	1598.08
Previous Daily Low	1504.72
Previous Weekly High	1703.4
Previous Weekly Low	1504.72
Previous Monthly High	1689.4
Previous Monthly Low	1547.56
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1540.38
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1562.42
Daily Pivot Point S1	1490.69
Daily Pivot Point S2	1451.03
Daily Pivot Point S3	1397.33
Daily Pivot Point R1	1584.05
Daily Pivot Point R2	1637.75
Daily Pivot Point R3	1677.41

Chart of the week: Gold holds weekly support, eyes a 38.2% Fibo retracement

The return of risk appetite was adverse to gold prices, suffering a flight to cash to pay-up for margin calls mid-week. On Friday, the nail in the coffin came from US President Donald Trump declaring a national emergency and allowing more than $40 billion of FEMA funds to deal with the COVID crisis.

The move sent stocks much higher and US treasuries lower, pressuring yields and the US higher, subsequently taking down gold prices to a weekly support line. Gold reverted to the levels seen during the last bout of liquidity selling in late February, around $1,560/oz and then dropped all the way to a low of $1,504.34/oz (just above the 200-DMA, $1,497) as investors sold winners to generate liquidity and cover losses.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant near 0.6950

AUD/USD attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it remains confined within Friday's broader range amid mixed cues. The US PCE data and the US NFP report released last week tempered October Fed hike bets, dragging US bond yields away from multi-year highs and keeping US Dollar bulls on the back foot. However, geopolitical uncertainty is a tailwind for the safe-haven buck, while the RBA's cautious outlook caps the Aussie.

USD/JPY remains confined in a range below 158.00

USD/JPY holds steady around 157.75 during the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Against the backdrop of soft US PCE data, the US NFP report, released on Friday, tempers October Fed rate-hike bets and drags US bond yields away from multi-year highs. Furthermore, hawkish BoJ expectations amid looming intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, capping the pair. However, geopolitical uncertainty acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and limits the downside.

Gold trades with positive bias around $4,150; upside seems capped

Gold attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week, though it remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. Against the backdrop of soft US PCE data, Friday's weak US NFP report tempered bets of an October Fed rate hike. This, in turn, drags US bond yields away from multi-year highs and benefits the non-yielding bullion. The US Dollar, however, draws support from geopolitical uncertainties and could act as a headwind for the precious metal.

Week ahead: Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

The first full week of October and the final quarter of the year get underway with little fanfare in terms of the economic agenda. But far from being short on excitement, the coming week will test market nerves, as government bond yields continue to soar on growing worries that the energy crisis will only get worse, fuelling inflation.

CFTC Report: Speculators turn more defensive as Oil exposure falls

The week in one sentence: During the week leading up to September 29, long positions in crude oil were significantly reduced, while short positions in the Canadian Dollar went up. In addition, the positioning of the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen declined, while Coffee buying stood out against a more general background of defensiveness.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.