Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD upside appears more compelling ahead of US NFP – Confluence Detector

Gold price consolidates recent gains around four-month high after crossing the key resistances.
Cautious mood, US Dollar rebound allows XAU/USD bulls to take a breather.
Downbeat expectations from US employment report, dovish bias for Fed favor Gold bulls.
Sustained trading beyond $1,796, $1,787 keeps buyers hopeful.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) settles around a four-month high, printing mild losses to challenge the three-day uptrend of late, as markets await the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) during early Friday. In addition to the pre-data anxiety, a rethink over the latest dovish bias about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move and the risk-negative headlines from International Monetary Fund (IMF) also appeared to have probed the Gold buyers.

However, downbeat early signals of the US employment and inflation conditions join the Fed policymakers’ readiness to ease the rate hike trajectory keeping the XAU/USD bulls hopeful. Also suggesting the bullion’s further upside are market consensus for the US employment report for November and optimism surrounding China, one of the world’s biggest Gold buyers.

Also read: US November Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing Gold's reaction to NFP surprises

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the Gold price remains beyond the previous key hurdle surrounding $1,796 despite the latest pullback. That said, the stated level encompasses Fibonacci 23.6% on one-day and 200-DMA.

Even if the quote breaks the $1,796 support, another key level including the Pivot Point 1 Week R2 and the previous monthly top surrounding $1,787 will be a tough nut to crack for the Gold bears.

It’s worth noting that the XAU/USD weakness past $1,787 won’t hesitate to challenge the weekly bottom surrounding $1,740.

On the contrary, the previous daily high near $1,805 and the upper line of the Bollinger on the D1, around $1,810, can test the Gold buyers.

Also acting as an upside filter is the Pivot Point 1 Day R1 near $1,815, a break of which will give free hand to the bulls.

Here is how it looks on the tool

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD climbs above 1.1600 on US–Iran peace breakthrough

The EUR/USD pair stays firm above 1.1600 in the European session on Monday. The US and Iran have reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, which underpins risk sentiment, supporting the Euro against the US Dollar. Now, the main focus this week remains on the Fed policy decision due on Wednesday.

GBP/USD: US-Iran reaches deal supporting advance beyond 20-day EMA

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3460 during the late Asian trading session. The Cable extends its week-long advance as market sentiment improves further, following the announcement that the United States and Iran have reached a deal.

Gold gains momentum as US, Iran announce a peace deal

Gold price rises to a weekly high during the early European trading hours on Monday. The precious metal rebounds after the United States and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.

Bitcoin consolidates gains, Ethereum defends support, XRP nears breakout trigger

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple begin the week on a constructive note as the top three cryptocurrencies attempt to extend rebounds after recovering nearly 4%, 2% and 2.6%, respectively. BTC steadies around $65,600, ETH continues to hold firmly above the key $1,700 support, while XRP nears the upper boundary of the falling channel pattern.

President Trump announced that the deal with Iran is complete

President Trump announced that the deal with Iran is complete and he authorises the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US Naval blockade. While the agreement is made, it is expected to be signed on Friday to take effect. The Forex market looks stable and could react slowly to the positivity around the news as Iran still expresses its mistrust on the US.

4.2% headline, 0.2% core: Why the Fed's next hike may be targeting the wrong problem

May's CPI put headline inflation at 4.2% on the year, up from 3.8% in April and the hottest reading since April 2023, while core prices rose just 0.2% on the month, undershooting the 0.3% consensus and halving April's pace.